The bar seems to follow a pattern of falling down below the goal and then going up above it. I don't know the pattern for why it has this behavior. It should be much more stable, but I guess that's just natural variation.

I first assumed it was based on average based on time frames (day vs. night posting), but restricting the goal to just time frames really fucks up the statistics.

So I'll just keep hoping it's just typical posting variation, unless someone wants to brainstorm how to stabilize it.